Looking for the Green Shoots of Recovery
As the UK economy limps through a bad recession – not a depression – I am looking for anecdotal evidence of improvements. Two things hit me hard last week:
1. I went to Interbuild at the NEC, the premier UK building exhibition. Normally it fills five halls with all the really big building names exhibiting. This year it filled only two-and-a-half halls. There is nothing more depressing to a marketer at Interbuild than the big grey boards blanking off a dark, unfilled void beyond - and the biggest exhibitors were Ford & Vauxhall! There were lots of unemployed, young builders looking to network for new jobs but precious little else going on. If you needed evidence that the UK construction industry is on pause – this was it! It was ironic that on the way to Interbuild, there was an HSBC event which looked posh and lavish. The industry that caused the problem seems to be doing better then the industry which is now dealing with the problem.
2. The traffic into Chester is light. Normally in October the extra staff manning the shops for the Christmas rush fills the roads going to work from the beginning of October. I noticed last year this did not happen and this year it is the same. I am hoping for queues soon and some Christmas ads on the TV. There has been nothing yet. As retailers say ‘October volume makes or breaks Christmas’ and there is not long to go. Yet Amazon results are amazingly good for its on-line retailing.
So, the lesson I learnt last week was to be in the right industry (banking!) or selling in the right place (on-line!). GDP dropped a little in quarter three, but it’s still a big economy. Unemployment might be 8% but it still means 92% are employed. People still have to drive, eat, shop and relax. So, there are business opportunities out there. And with daily on-line improvements, the cost of entry into markets is much reduced. But every penny spent on marketing, now needs to count. So, the £10k a month fees paid to the big agencies for pure project management have stopped, which is an opportunity for agencies like Oakbase to offer top creativity and real value for money. Plus there is a genuine desire to partner clients through change and make sure the changes work. It’s pretty bleak out there but enterprise and focussed, planned action will sow the seeds and pay when the green shoots surface…
Paul Mizon